Working Papers

Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update (with Raphael Auer and Raphael Schoenle) (FRBC WP, BIS WP)

The Causal Effect of Expected Depreciations (with Martha Elena Delgado, Juan Herreño and Marc Hofstetter) (FRBC WP)

The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance (with Ed Knotek, James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff) (FBRC WP)

Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Hiroshi Toma and Esteban Verdugo

The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks on Firms' Expectations (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Serafin Frache, Rodrigo Lluberas and Javier Turen

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Robert Rich and Raphael Schoenle

Coverage: Bloomberg, CNN, Brookings, Vox

The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks (with Juan Herreño) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP

Revise and resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics

Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era (with Bernardo Candia) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP). 

Revise and resubmit, Journal of European Economic Association. 


Work in Progress

The Expectations of Hand-to-mouths (with Esteban Verdugo)

Other Publications

The Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (with Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek II and Taylor Shiroff) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2023-10 (May)

In Press: Bloomberg

Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations (with Chris Campos and Michael McMain) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–06 (April)

In Press: NY Times

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (with Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek II, Robert Rich, John Leer and Raphael Schoenle) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–03 (March)

In Press: WSJ, The Economist