Research

Working Papers

The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance (with Ed Knotek, James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff) (FBRC WP)

Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Hiroshi Toma and Esteban Verdugo

The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks on Firms' Expectations (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Serafin Frache, Rodrigo Lluberas and Javier Turen

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Robert Rich and Raphael Schoenle

Coverage: Bloomberg, CNN, Brookings, Vox

The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks (with Juan Herreño) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP

Revise and resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics

Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era (with Bernardo Candia) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP). 

Revise and resubmit, Journal of European Economic Association. 

Publications

Work in Progress

The Causal Effect of Expected Depreciations (with Martha Elena Delgado, Juan Herreño and Marc Hofstetter)

We estimate the causal effects of a shift in the expected future exchange rate of a local currency against the US Dollar on a representative sample of firms in an open economy. We provide the one-year-ahead nominal exchange rate forecast published by local central bank to a random sub-sample of firm managers. The treatment is effective in shifting exchange rate and inflation expectations and perceptions. These effects are persistent and larger for non-exporting firms. Linking survey responses with administrative census data, we find that the treatment affects the dynamics of exports and imports quantities and prices at the firm level, with differential effects for exports to destination countries that use the US dollar as their currency. We instrument exchange rate expectations with the variation induced by the instrument and estimate a positive elasticity of a future expected depreciation on import expenditures. 

Other Publications

The Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (with Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek II and Taylor Shiroff) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2023-10 (May)

In Press: Bloomberg


Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations (with Chris Campos and Michael McMain) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–06 (April)

In Press: NY Times

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (with Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek II, Robert Rich, John Leer and Raphael Schoenle) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–03 (March)

In Press: WSJ, The Economist