Research

Working Papers

The Causal Effect of Expected Depreciations (with Martha Elena Delgado, Juan Herreño and Marc Hofstetter) (FRBC WP)

The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance (with Ed Knotek, James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff) (FBRC WP)

Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Hiroshi Toma and Esteban Verdugo) 

The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks on Firms' Expectations (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Serafin Frache, Rodrigo Lluberas and Javier Turen) 

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Robert Rich and Raphael Schoenle) 

Coverage: Bloomberg, CNN, Brookings, Vox

The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks (with Juan Herreño) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) 

Revise and resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics

Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era (with Bernardo Candia) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP). 

Revise and resubmit, Journal of European Economic Association. 

Publications

Economic Voting During the Great Depression (2024) (with Juan Herreño and Matias Morales) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) 

Journal of Historical Political Economy, Vol 3(4), pp 607-628

Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression. 

Accepted for publication at Review of Economics and Statistics

Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool? (2020) (with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar) 

Journal of International Economics, Vol 124

In press: Bloomberg, WSJ, Economist. 

Winner of the 2022 Calvo Award for International Macroeconomics. 

Work in Progress

Global Inflation: A post-GFC update (with Raphael Auer and Raphael Schoenle)

Is inflation (still) a global phenomenon? We study the international co-movement of inflation based on a dynamic factor model and in a sample spanning up to 56 countries and the period 1960-2023. We find that over the entire period, around 58% of the variation in headline inflation across countries can be attributed to a first global factor, and over 72% of the variation in OECD economies. The explanatory power of global inflation is equally high in a shorter sample spanning the time since 2000. Also core inflation is remarkably global, with 53% of its variation attributable to a first global factor. The explanatory power of a second global factor is lower, except for select emerging economies. Variables such as a broad Dollar Index, the US Federal Funds rate, and a measure of commodity prices positively correlate with the first global factor. This global factor is also correlated with US inflation during the 70s, 80s, the GFC, and COVID. However, it lags these variables during the post-COVID period. Country-level integration in global value chains accounts for a significant proportion of the share of local inflation dynamics that is explained by global factors.  

The Expectations of Hand-to-mouths (with Esteban Verdugo)

Other Publications

The Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (with Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek II and Taylor Shiroff) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2023-10 (May)

In Press: Bloomberg


Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations (with Chris Campos and Michael McMain) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–06 (April)

In Press: NY Times

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (with Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek II, Robert Rich, John Leer and Raphael Schoenle) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–03 (March)

In Press: WSJ, The Economist