Research

Working Papers

Sixty Years of Global Inflation: A Post-GFC Update (with Raphael Auer and Raphael Schoenle) (FRBC WP, BIS WP)

The Causal Effect of Expected Depreciations (with Martha Elena Delgado, Juan Herreño and Marc Hofstetter) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP)

The Effects of Interest Rate Increases on Consumers’ Inflation Expectations: The Roles of Informedness and Compliance (with Ed Knotek, James Mitchell and Taylor Shiroff) (FBRC WP)

The Expectations of Others (with Ezequiel Garcia-Lembergman, Ina Hajdini, John Leer and Raphael Schoenle) (Latest Draft, FBRC WP)

Aggregate Implications of Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations: The Role of Individual Experience (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Hiroshi Toma and Esteban Verdugo)

The Transmission of International Monetary Policy Shocks on Firms' Expectations (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Serafin Frache, Rodrigo Lluberas and Javier Turen)

Low Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations: Why People Dislike Inflation (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) (with Ina Hajdini, Edward S. Knotek II, John Leer, Robert Rich and Raphael Schoenle)

Coverage: Bloomberg, CNN, Brookings, Vox

The Geographic Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks (with Juan Herreño) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP) Revise and resubmit, Review of Economics and Statistics

Export-Led Decay: The Trade Channel in the Gold Standard Era (with Bernardo Candia) (Latest Draft, FRBC WP), Conditionally accepted, Journal of European Economic Association.

Publications

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations: Theory and Evidence (2024) (with Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek II, Robert Rich, John Leer and Raphael Schoenle) Journal of Monetary Economics 145 103568

Fireside Chats: Communication and Consumers’ Expectations in the Great Depression (2024) Review of Economics and Statistics 106 (4) 997-1011

Economic Voting During the Great Depression (2024) (with Juan Herreño and Matias Morales) Journal of Historical Political Economy, Vol 3(4), pp 607-628

Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool? (2020) (with Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Saten Kumar) Journal of International Economics, Vol 124

In press: Bloomberg, WSJ, Economist.

Winner of the 2022 Calvo Award for International Macroeconomics.

What is the relationship between domestic saving and investment in Latin America and the Caribbean? Re-estimating Feldstein-Horioka (2016) (with Eduardo Cavallo) Economia, Journal of LACEA, volume 16-2, pp 29-53.

A New Taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops Should Countries be most Concerned About? (2015) (with Eduardo Cavallo, Andrew Powell and Pilar Tavella) Journal of International Money and Finance vol 51, pp 47-70.

Work in Progress

The Expectations of Hand-to-mouths (with Esteban Verdugo)

Other Publications

The Survey of Firms' Inflation Expectations (with Christian Garciga, Edward Knotek II and Taylor Shiroff) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2023-10 (May)

In Press: Bloomberg

Understanding Which Prices Affect Inflation Expectations (with Chris Campos and Michael McMain) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–06 (April)

In Press: NY Times

Indirect Consumer Inflation Expectations (with Ina Hajdini, Edward Knotek II, Robert Rich, John Leer and Raphael Schoenle) Economic Commentary (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland), no. 2022–03 (March)

In Press: WSJ, The Economist